ANALYZING THE RESULTS

Compare Results with Smiths of New England DNA Project- Or Smith Families. We have also added a Notes section on Lines Taking Test IF there is a match outside this project.

Project Members-you can compare your results with others in 2 ways. In your member screen/click on kit #/setup preferences/match against entire database (bear in mind that for Smiths, on 12 markers, the results are not necessarily meaningful. If you match with another surname, it may only be meaningful if you happen to find the same surname via marriage or census reference in the neighborhood.) Also, to compare against all other DNA company projects, upload your results to Ysearch- in member screen, clickn on Kit number, YDNA matches, then, Click Here to Upload to YSearch.org- here's the direct Ysearch link

DYS 19 is also known as DYS 394.

It is obvious from our observation of 1000's of samples that some markers change or mutate at a faster rate than others. While that actual 'faster rate' has not yet been definitively calculated, not all markers should be treated the same for evaluation purposes.
The markers in red have shown a faster mutation rate then the average, and therefore these markers are very helpful at splitting lineages into sub sets, or branches, within your family tree.Explained another way, if you match exactly on all of the markers except for one or a few of the markers we have determined mutate more quickly, then despite the mutation this mismatch only slightly decreases the probability of two people in your surname group who match 11/12 or even 23/25 of not sharing a recent common ancestor.
Interpreting genetic distance- 12 markers   Interpreting genetic distance -25 markers   Interpreting genetic distance 37 markers

What are the probabilities of matching?    More information

Table Shows # of Generations

Match  

50%

90%

95%

95% Confidence Interval
12-0 Match exactly at all 12 markers 

14

48

62

1-77
11-1 11 exact matches, 1 mismatch 

37

85

103

5-121
10-2 10 exact matches, 2 mismatch 

61

122

144

14-165
25-0 Match exactly at all 25 markers 

7

23

30

0-37
24-1 24 exact matches, 1 mismatch 

17

40

48

2-57
23-2 23 exact matches, 2 mismatch 

28

56

66

6-75
 

 

READING THE DNA TABLE

DNA - Deoxyribonucleic Acid:  the main constituent of chromosomes - the double helix containing the chemical code that defines who and what we are.
Allele Numbers:  Any of two or more genes that have the same relative position  on related chromosomes
Numbers are Repeats:  Each participant's allele repeats for their measured loci (DYS) in the following table.  Comparison of these results (numbers) is analogous to matching the scratches on bullets to determine which ones were fired from the same gun.

Why Some Rows Are Longer: - Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA)
Some participants took the 12 Marker test  - 14.4 generation MRCA
Some participants took the 25 Marker test   -  6.8 generations MRCA

UNDERSTANDING THE RESULTS OF A 12 MARKER TEST
UNDERSTANDING THE RESULTS OF A 25 MARKER TEST

The Y-chromosome signatures change very slowly over time and the pattern is usually stable over hundreds of years, but for some unknown and unexpected reason, a mutation can occur without notice in any generation.  Male relatives who have an uninterrupted male-male link between them will share the same, or very similar Y-chromosome signatures. The Y-line is particularly useful when a connection between different branches of a family is suspected but cannot be proven from written records.  Using the Y-line, by comparing the Y-chromosome signatures, provides the answer. A[ generation for genealogical purposes is usually considered to be 30 years, whereas a generation for DNA purposes is usually considered to be about 20-25 years.  Some of the reasons that can cause a Y-line to be a non-match with a participants' previous genealogical paper research and/or family tradition include incorrect paper genealogy research;  adoption;  rape; or infidelity.

ANALYZING THE RESULTS

We are going to have so many Smith members that it will be difficult at best to analyze all the matches, putting some rule of thumbs here. First, all results are categorized by most likely haplogroup, which is the general group one belongs to (European versus Middle Eastern, for example, but going back thousands of years to origins). See the link Haplogroups, above for more description. The Group R1b is the largest one and it's not only not surprising if the participants match on 12/12 markers but that there may be many matches outside of the surname Smith/Smyth. (See "More Information", above, for a short description of the relevance of matching with other surnames). Therefore all 12/12  matches that exist without a convincing paper trail should be considered definite matches only after 25 markers have been done. 11/12 matches are considered a match as mutations can occur (have seen them between a father and his son) , but it can push the common ancestor back some generations (see the chart, above). 10/12 (ie, 2 marker variation) is also considered a match at the outside boundaries-again pushes out the common ancestor in time. Therefore, particularly when there are so many Smiths, consider upgrading to 25 markers to see if the match still holds or brings out further variations. For example, some 11/12 matches that looked like good candidates to match other lines proved to not be related when the 25 markers were updated. Can one say how a 25 marker upgrade will test out? No, only the results will show a match or not.

In the case of fast-moving markers, there are some considerations. One simply cannot discount the markers and look for only the matches that remain. And fast-moving is a relative term, does not mean that it necessarily happens within a few generations, for example. Not only looking at the number of fast moving markers but how many *steps* there are between the markers is important. So, if a marker on one line is 12 and the other has 17 at that one, it's not likely to be a match, assuming that there are other mutational differences as well. On matches that seem like they *should* be part of the same family line, another possibility is to find distant cousins from same branch that, not being  more directly related, may have had their own patterns of differences. If there are lines that appear on the non-fasting moving markers to be matches on 12 markers only, 25 markers as a refinement really needs to be done.

Note also that as test results come in, all results will be constantly examined to see if they fit with the other members or might be moved to a different position.

One more thing. We make every effort to ensure that the lines as presented are correct-one way is by attempting to find the lines in the census, birth and marriage records, etc, but in the end we rely on each participant for an accurate paper trail (and of course this is why people are in the project, in order to verify their lines). If you find you have a discrepancy between yourself and another tester, please contact that person to come to a consensus-we don't alter what people believe to be an individual line without permission.

 Please note we would like some additional Smyth lines.  IF YOU WISH TO CONTACT ONE OF THE TEST MEMBERS, AND THEY HAVE GIVEN PERMISSION TO HAVE AN EMAIL LINK, YOU MAY CLICK ON THE KIT NUMBER ON THE RESULTS, WHICH WILL TAKE YOU TO AN EMAIL FORM. If you see *TBD* in the results line, it indicates that the person, although participating, has not sent information indicating which Smith he or she is testing on.  If we are unable to contact the participant for lineage information after repeated efforts, the test results will be removed until we hear.

INTERESTED IN FINDING OUT MORE FOR YOU?

NOTE: Please contact the project manager if you wish to link to this page. Please do NOT copy and paste the chart to other pages. Thank You-